Ex-ante review of export supervision of nuclear dual-use goods in Indonesia: A risk-based approach between non-proliferation compliance and export performance
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54957/educoretax.v5i10.1903Kata Kunci:
Customs supervision, Dual-use nuclear, Export control, Risk management, Strategic trade managementAbstrak
Indonesia faces a critical regulatory gap in supervising exports of dual‑use nuclear items despite longstanding commitments to the Nuclear Non‑Proliferation Treaty (NPT), International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards, and UN Security Council Resolution 1540. This study provides an ex‑ante risk‑based assessment to guide the design of Indonesia’s export control framework. Using qualitative descriptive methods, the research applies institutional mapping, risk heat map analysis, and SWOT‑TOWS strategic planning to balance non‑proliferation compliance with trade facilitation.
Analisis kelembagaan mengungkapkan mandat yang terfragmentasi di lima lembaga (BAPETEN, Bea Cukai, Kementerian Perdagangan, INSW, Kementerian Luar Negeri) tanpa mekanisme koordinasi formal. Penilaian risiko mengidentifikasi empat kategori (R1–R4), dengan risiko ekstrem (R4) terkait pemindahan yang tidak terdeteksi dan risiko tinggi (R3) terkait gesekan perdagangan akibat positif palsu. Untuk mengatasi tantangan ini, studi mengusulkan arsitektur pengawasan dua tingkatan: Tingkat A untuk barang risiko sangat tinggi di bawah perizinan pengamanan BAPETEN, dan Tingkat B untuk barang pendukung di bawah penyaringan berbasis HS Bea Cukai.
Analisis SWOT-TOWS menghasilkan 16 strategi, yang memprioritaskan: (1) koordinasi antar-lembaga formal melalui Peraturan Presiden, (2) sistem intelijen risiko STM terpadu di dalam INSW dan Bea Cukai, (3) pelatihan wajib dan standar kompetensi petugas, serta (4) filter HS optimal dengan mekanisme penangkapan menyeluruh dan bidang detail produk. Kerangka ini menunjukkan bagaimana teori kontingensi dan prinsip manajemen risiko dapat menghasilkan pengendalian ekspor adaptif yang selaras dengan kapasitas kelembagaan Indonesia dan kewajiban internasional.
Penelitian ini memberikan metodologi yang dapat direplikasi untuk penilaian regulasi ex-ante pada domain barang berfungsi ganda dan menawarkan rekomendasi kebijakan yang dapat diimplementasikan, memposisikan Indonesia untuk mencapai kepatuhan cerdas
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