Ex-ante review of export supervision of nuclear dual-use goods in Indonesia: A risk-based approach between non-proliferation compliance and export performance
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54957/educoretax.v5i10.1903Keywords:
Customs supervision, Dual-use nuclear, Export control, Risk management, Strategic trade managementAbstract
Indonesia faces a critical regulatory gap in supervising exports of dual‑use nuclear items despite longstanding commitments to the Nuclear Non‑Proliferation Treaty (NPT), International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards, and UN Security Council Resolution 1540. This study provides an ex‑ante risk‑based assessment to guide the design of Indonesia’s export control framework. Using qualitative descriptive methods, the research applies institutional mapping, risk heat map analysis, and SWOT‑TOWS strategic planning to balance non‑proliferation compliance with trade facilitation.
Institutional analysis reveals fragmented mandates across five agencies (BAPETEN, Customs, Ministry of Trade, INSW, Ministry of Foreign Affairs) with no formal coordination mechanism. Risk assessment identifies four categories (R1–R4), with extreme risk (R4) linked to undetected diversion and high risk (R3) to trade friction from false positives. To address these challenges, the study proposes a two‑tier supervisory architecture: Tier A for very high‑risk items under BAPETEN’s safeguards licensing, and Tier B for supporting goods under Customs’ HS‑based screening.
The SWOT‑TOWS analysis generates 16 strategies, prioritizing: (1) formal inter‑agency coordination via Presidential Regulation, (2) integrated STM risk intelligence systems within INSW and Customs, (3) mandatory officer training and competency standards, and (4) a minimalist HS core set with catch‑all mechanisms and product detail fields. The framework demonstrates how contingency theory and risk management principles can produce adaptive export controls aligned with Indonesia’s institutional capacity and international obligations.
This research contributes a replicable methodology for ex‑ante regulatory assessment in dual‑use domains and offers actionable policy recommendations, positioning Indonesia to achieve “smart compliance.”
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