Economic value creation from nickel downstream processing in Indonesia: Evidence from input–output and empirical value-added estimation

Authors

  • Ivan Krishna Harimurti Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia
  • Ikhsantino Akbar Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia
  • Kristian Abillio Pratama Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54957/educoretax.v6i3.2087

Keywords:

Nickel, Donwstream, Value Added

Abstract

Indonesia has promoted nickel downstream industrialization to enhance structural transformation and increase domestic value creation. As the world’s largest nickel producer, the country aims to shift from raw ore exports toward processed products to capture greater economic benefits. However, quantitative evidence on the magnitude of value added at both sectoral and product levels remains limited. This study measures the economic value added of nickel downstream processing using a dual approach. First, an input–output analysis evaluates backward linkages, forward linkages, and value-added multipliers across nickel-related sectors. Second, empirical calculations estimate value added from processing nickel ore into Nickel Pig Iron (NPI) and nickel matte. The results show that the non-ferrous basic metal industry functions as a key sector, with linkage indices above unity and the highest value-added multiplier (2.696). At the product level, NPI generates a value added of US$ 794.40 per ton (109% increase over raw ore equivalent), while nickel matte generates US$ 868.36 per ton (11% increase). These findings confirm that downstream processing enhances economic value, although gains vary across products, underscoring the importance of strategic product prioritization.

References

Agung, M., & Adi, E. A. W. (2022). Peningkatan Investasi Dan Hilirisasi Nikel Di Indonesia. JISIP (Jurnal Ilmu Sosial Dan Pendidikan), 6(2). https://doi.org/10.58258/jisip.v6i2.3085

Agustinus, M., & Azizah, N. N. (2019, August 11). Larangan Ekspor Nikel: Penambang Menolak, Pengusaha Smelter Mendukung. https://kumparan.com/kumparanbisnis/larangan-ekspor-nikel-penambang-menolak-pengusaha-smelter-mendukung-1riifHijpnz/full

Asbiantari, D. R., Parulian Hutagaol, M., & Asmara, A. (2016). Pengaruh Ekspor Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia (Effect of Export on Indonesian’s Economic Growth). Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Kebijakan Pembangunan, 5(2), 10–31. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.29244/jekp.5.2.2016.10-31

Azim, F., Lionardo, A., & Rivai, F. (2021). UPAYA PENINGKATAN NILAI KOMPETITIF PRODUK NIKEL INDONESIA MELALUI PERATURAN MENTERI ENERGI DAN SUMBER DAYA MINERAL NO 11 TAHUN 2019 [Sriwijaya University]. https://repository.unsri.ac.id/51992/59/RAMA_84201_07041281722076_0001057901_0011048903_01_front_ref.pdf

Bappenas. (2019). Indonesia 2045 : Berdaulat, Maju, Adil, dan Makmur. https://perpustakaan.bappenas.go.id/e-library/file_upload/koleksi/migrasi-data-publikasi/file/Policy_Paper/Ringkasan%20Eksekutif%20Visi%20Indonesia%202045_Final.pdf

Behre Dolbear Australia. (2023). KAJIAN TEKNIS INDEPENDEN ASET NIKEL MERDEKA BATTERY MATERIALS – SULAWESI TENGGARA, INDONESIA. https://assets.merdekabattery.com/dist/documents/Initial%20Public%20Offering%20Prospectus%20MBMA%202023%20-%20Final.pdf

Claus, I. (2009). New Zealand’s economic reforms and changes in production structure. Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 12(2), 133–143. https://doi.org/10.1080/17487870902872938

Direktorat Jenderal Industri Logam Mesin Alat Transportasi dan Elektronika. (2023). FGD - Strategi dan Progress Hilirisasi Industri Berbasis SDA [PowerPoint slides].

Direktorat Jenderal Mineral dan Batubara. (2021). Grand Strategy Mineral dan Batubara : Arah Pengembangan Hulu Hilir Mineral Utama dan Batubara Menuju Indonesia Maju. https://www.esdm.go.id/assets/media/content/content-buku-grand-strategy-komoditas-minerba.pdf

Hawksworth, J., Clarry, R., & Audino, H. (2017). The Long View How will the global economic order change by 2050? https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/world-2050/assets/pwc-the-world-in-2050-full-report-feb-2017.pdf

Ika, S. (2017). Kebijakan Hilirisasi Mineral : Policy Reform untuk Meningkatkan Penerimaan Negara. Kajian Ekonomi Dan Keuangan, 1(1), 42–67. https://doi.org/10.31685/kek.v1i1.259

ITC Trade Map. (n.d.). Trade statistics for international business development Monthly, quarterly and yearly trade data. Import & export values, volumes, growth rates, market shares, etc. Retrieved May 19, 2023, from https://www.trademap.org

Krugman, P. R., Obstfeld, M., & Melitz, M. J. (2022). International Economics Theory and Policy (12th ed.). Pearson Education.

Mankiw, N. G. (2018). Macroeconomics (C. Woods, Ed.; 9th ed., Vol. 10). Worth Publishers.

Media Nikel Indonesia. (2022, December 27). Refleksi HPM Nikel 2022: Dari Tragedi Big Short hingga Perhitungan Normal | Media Nikel Indonesia. https://nikel.co.id/2022/12/27/refleksi-hpm-nikel-2022-dari-tragedi-big-short-hingga-perhitungan-normal/

Miller, R. E., & Blair, P. D. (2009). Input-Output Analysis. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511626982

Mudd, G. M. (2009). Nickel sulfide versus laterite: the hard sustainability challenge remains. Proceedings of the 48th Conference of Metallurgists, 23–26.

Oberman, R., Richard, D., Arief, B., Fraser, T., & Rossé, M. (2012). The archipelago economy: Unleashing Indonesia’s potential. www.mckinsey.com/mgi.

Pratama, K. A. (2025). ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF INCREASING THE VALUE OF FERRONICKEL EXPORTS ON DOMESTIC INDUSTRY AND IMPORTS USING THE 2016 INDONESIAN INPUT-OUTPUT TABLE. Journal of Economic, Bussines and Accounting (COSTING), 8(2), 1193–1200. https://doi.org/10.31539/costing.v8i2.14007

Sabowo, H. K., & Siswanto, B. (2023). Legal Aspects of the Export Prohibition of Raw Nickel Related to Increasing Hilirization in Indonesia. In International Conference On Law, Economics, and Health (ICLEH 2022) (pp. 733–743). https://doi.org/10.2991/978-2-38476-024-4_74

Siombo, M. R. (2023). Kajian Hukum Hilirisasi dan Penghentian Ekspor Mineral Logam. JISIP (Jurnal Ilmu Sosial Dan Pendidikan), 7(2). https://doi.org/http://dx.doi.org/10.58258/jisip.v7i2.4915

Siregar, N. K. (2017). Ekstraksi nikel laterit soroako menggunakan asam sulfat. https://dspace.uii.ac.id/bitstream/handle/123456789/27728/13612041%20Nida%20Khoirina%20Siregar.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

Sorga, S., Darus, H. M. M. B., & Ayu, S. F. (2014). Analisis Komparasi Nilai Tambah dalam Berbagai Produk Olahan Kedelai pada Industri Rumah Tangga Di Kota Medan. JOURNAL ON SOCIAL ECONOMIC OF AGRICULTURE AND AGRIBUSINESS, 2(12). https://www.neliti.com/publications/15171/analisis-komparasi-nilai-tambah-dalam-berbagai-produk-olahan-kedelai-pada-indust#cite

Sukma, M., Hartono, D., & Prihawantoro, S. (2018). The Impacts Analysis of Creative-Products Export on the Economy. JEJAK, 11(1), 92–107. https://doi.org/10.15294/jejak.v11i1.11337

United Nations. (n.d.). For a livable climate: Net-zero commitments must be backed by credible action. Retrieved June 6, 2023, from https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/net-zero-coalition

U.S. Geological Survey. (2022). Mineral commodity summaries 2022. https://doi.org/10.3133/mcs2022

Downloads

Published

2026-03-30

How to Cite

Harimurti, I. K., Akbar, I., & Pratama, K. A. (2026). Economic value creation from nickel downstream processing in Indonesia: Evidence from input–output and empirical value-added estimation. Educoretax, 6(3), 126–135. https://doi.org/10.54957/educoretax.v6i3.2087

Issue

Section

Articles