Efficient market theory on trial: The case of PT Semen Indonesia

Penulis

  • Raja Pranatha Doloksaribu Politeknik Keuangan Negara STAN
  • Arum Puspita Maharani Politeknik Keuangan Negara STAN
  • Resi Ariyasa Qadri Politeknik Keuangan Negara STAN

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54957/jolas.v5i1.844

Kata Kunci:

Cement, Efficient-Market, Price

Abstrak

This study seeks to investigate the dynamics within PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk, particularly examining the paradox of its share price decline during a period of favorable operational and financial performance from November 2022 to May 2023. Employing both interviews with high-level executives and extensive literature review, the research adopts a mixed-method approach. Interview data were meticulously analyzed using clustered coding to draw nuanced insights, while the literature review served to contextualize and bolster the analysis of the empirical data. The findings indicate that despite the robust operational and financial health of PT Semen Indonesia during the specified period, the company experienced a concomitant decline in its stock value, challenging the assumptions of the Efficient Market Theory. The disparity between the company’s performance metrics and its stock price behavior suggests a weak application or potential invalidity of the Efficient Market Theory in this instance. This research not only underscores the complexities of stock price determinations within Indonesian state-owned enterprises but also opens avenues for future studies to explore similar phenomena across different firms or industries. The unique insights gained from high-level sources within the company provide a valuable foundation for further scholarly inquiry into market efficiency theories.

Referensi

Ang, A., Goetzmann, W. N., & Schaefer, S. M. (2011a). The efficient market theory and evidence: Implications for active investment management. Foundations and Trends in Finance, 5(3), 157–242. https://doi.org/10.1561/0500000034

Antono, Z. M., Jaharadak, A. A., & Khatibi, A. A. (2019). Analysis of factors affecting stock prices in mining sector: Evidence from Indonesia Stock Exchange. Management Science Letters. https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:191911223

Aroni, J. (2011). FACTORS INFLUENCING STOCK PRICES FOR FIRMS LISTED IN THE NAIROBI STOCK EXCHANGE. https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:145815076

Bahtiar, M., & Qadri, R. A. (2024). The Voluntary Disclosure Dilemma: Unraveling the Compliance-Evasion Causality in Tax Administration. Educoretax, 4(2), 249–262. https://doi.org/10.54957/educoretax.v4i2.734

Biggerstaff, L., Cicero, D. C., & Wintoki, M. B. (2020). Insider Trading Patterns. Corporate Governance: Internal Governance. https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:11930121

Budiono, S., Purba, J. T., Adirinekso, G. P., & rajagukguk, W. (2021). Market Growth Strategy through Consumers’ Satisfaction, Product Quality and Brand Image: Evidence from Jakarta Indonesia. International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management.

Caporale, G. M., Gil-Alana, L., & Plastun, A. (2019). Long-term price overreactions: are markets inefficient? Journal of Economics and Finance, 43(4), 657–680. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12197-018-9464-8

Crotty, J. R. (2011). The Realism of Assumptions Does Matter: Why Keynes-Minsky Theory Must Replace Efficient Market Theory as the Guide to Financial Regulation Policy.

Daariy, A., Djamaluddin, S., & Sumarto, A. H. (2023). Macroeconomic Factors and Stock Returns: An Approach of Arbitrage Pricing Theory in the Food and Beverage Industry. JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS, FINANCE AND MANAGEMENT STUDIES. https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:256445921

Davidson, R. H., & Pirinsky, C. A. (2021). The Deterrent Effect of Insider Trading Enforcement Actions. The Accounting Review. https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:236554175

Deka, P., Barman, M. P., & Bora, J. (2020). Statistical Investigation of Factors Influencing Share Price Movements of National Stock Exchange Listed Companies in India. https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:225458873

Devia, D., Lestari, P., Sembiring, E., & Studi Teknik Lingkungan, P. (2017). LIFE CYCLE ASSESSMENT (LCA) PRODUK SEMEN PORTLAND KOMPOSIT (STUDI KASUS: PT X) LIFE CYCLE ASSESSMENT OF PORTLAND CEMENT COMPOSITE (CASE STUDY: PT X). In Jurnal Teknik Lingkungan (Vol. 23).

Godfrey, J., Hodgson, A., Tarca, A., Hamilton, J., & Holmes, S. (2010). Accounting Theory. Wiley & Sons.

Gupta, Ca. H. K., & Arora, M. K. (2019). Factors Influencing Stock Price of Manufacturing Sector: An Empirical Analysis of NSE listed Companies. https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:213698070

Harinurdin, E. (2022). The Effects Of Financial performance and Institutional Ownership On The Stock Price of Mining Company In Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) Year 2016-2020. Jurnal Keuangan Dan Perbankan (KEBAN). https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:255565080

Hull, M., & McGroarty, F. (2014). Do emerging markets become more efficient as they develop? Long memory persistence in equity indices. Emerging Markets Review, 18, 45–61. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ememar.2013.11.001

Hwang, S. J. (2022). ESG Performance of a Company and Stock Price Synchronicity. Korean Association Of Computers And Accounting. https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:259743398

Jovanovic, F. , A. S. , & S. C. (2016). Efficient Market Hypothesis and Fraud on the Market Theory A New Perspective for Class Actions. LSN: Securities Law: International (Topic).

Khoa, B. T., & Huynh, T. T. (2021). Is It Possible to Earn Abnormal Return in an Inefficient Market? An Approach Based on Machine Learning in Stock Trading. Computational Intelligence and Neuroscience, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/2917577

Kiky, A., Tinggi, S., & Wiyatamandala, I. E. (2018). Kajian Empiris Teori Pasar Efisien (Efficient Market Hypothesis) pada Bursa Efek Indonesia. Maret, 6(2), 138–156.

Kukreti, V., Bhatt, C., & Dani, R. (2023). A Stock Market Trends Analysis of Reliance using Machine Learning Techniques. 2023 6th International Conference on Information Systems and Computer Networks (ISCON), 1–6. https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:258510648

Mahajan, G. (2019). Interview with Michael J. Lanning on Value Proposition (& Value Delivery). Journal of Creating Value, 5, 237 - 241.

Margotta, & Donald. (2015). Halliburton and Efficient Market Theory. Northeastern U. D’Amore-McKim School of Business Research Paper No. 2650606.

MariaYessyChristy, B. (2016). Pengaruh Kinerja Keuangan Terhadap Price To Book Value (Pbv) pada Perusahaan Ritel yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode Tahun 2010-2014. https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:167953002

McMillan, D. G., Elgammal, M. M., & Ahmed, F. (2020). The information content of US stock market factors. Studies in Economics and Finance. https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:216386238

Prastuti, D., & Setianingrum, P. H. (2019). Company Performance and Macroeconomics Variables Influence on Stock Price. Proceedings of the 5th Annual International Conference on Management Research (AICMaR 2018). https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:159104641

Prastyawan, T. B., Qadri, R. A., & Asqolani. (2022). Unboxing “ICBP” Business During Pandemic: Has Price Reflected Accounting Information? Jurnal Riset Akuntansi Dan Bisnis Airlangga, 7(1), 1171–1194. https://doi.org/10.20473/jraba.v7i1.36184

Rachman, R. R., Sudjono, & Saluy, A. B. (2020). The Effect of Macro Economy and Financial Performance on Stock Price With Earning Per Share As The Intervening Variable (A Study on Retail Trading Company in IDX in 2011-2018). https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:234703374

Ramdany, A., & Manurung, T. M. S. (2022). The Effect Of Financial Performance On Pt Indofood Sukses Makmur, Tbk’s Stock Price On The Indonesia Stock Exchange (Period Of 2016 – 2020). Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen Kesatuan. https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:254176552

Rizqo, M., & Qadri, R. A. (2024). The Interplay Between ESG Disclosure And Financial Profitability. JOURNAL OF APPLIED MANAGERIAL ACCOUNTING, 8(1), 28–46. https://doi.org/10.30871/jama.v8i1.7239

Salim, M. N., & Prasetia, A. (2022). Determinants of Company Value (PBV) And Their Impact on Share Returns: A Case Study of Stock Price Index in Mining Companies Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) 2017–2020. European Journal of Business and Management Research. https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:254970320

Saputro, D., & Qadri, R. A. (2024). Optimizing Hajj Fund Investments Through Valuation Analysis Of Sharia-Compliant Stocks. Journal of Law, Administration, and Social Science, 4(2), 200–220. https://doi.org/10.54957/jolas.v4i2.758

Saunders, M., Lewis, P., & Thornhill, A. (2019). Research Methods for Business Students. (8 ed). Pearson.

Sixpence, A., Adeyeye, O. P., & rajaram, Rajendra. (2020). Impact of relative and absolute financial risks on share prices: a Zimbabwe Stock Exchange perspective. Investment Management and Financial Innovations. https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:211569447

Stein, J. C. (1989). Efficient Capital Markets, Inefficient Firms: A Model of Myopic Corporate Behavior. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 104(4). http://qje.oxfordjournals.org/

Steinberg, M. I. (2021). Insider Trading. Rethinking Securities Law. https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:242580707

Sukesti, F., Ghozali, I., Fuad, F., Almasyhari, A. K., & Nurcahyono, N. (2021). Factors Affecting the Stock Price: The Role of Firm Performance. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 8, 165–173. https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:233454435

Urquhart, A., & McGroarty, F. (2016a). Are stock markets really efficient? Evidence of the adaptive market hypothesis. International Review of Financial Analysis, 47, 39–49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2016.06.011

Urquhart, A., & McGroarty, F. (2016b). Are stock markets really efficient? Evidence of the adaptive market hypothesis. International Review of Financial Analysis, 47, 39–49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2016.06.011

Wahal, S. (1997). Entry, Exit, Market Makers, and the Bid-Ask Spread. Review of Financial Studies, 10, 871–901. https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:154990331

Woolley, P., & Fellow, S. (2014). The Fallibility of the Efficient Market Theory: A New Paradigm.

Xiong, W., & Cont, R. (2021). Interactions of market making algorithms: a study on perceived collusion. Proceedings of the Second ACM International Conference on AI in Finance. https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:248516700

Unduhan

Diterbitkan

05-01-2025

Cara Mengutip

Doloksaribu, R. P., Maharani, A. P., & Qadri, R. A. (2025). Efficient market theory on trial: The case of PT Semen Indonesia. Journal of Law, Administration, and Social Science, 5(1), 16–33. https://doi.org/10.54957/jolas.v5i1.844

Terbitan

Bagian

Articles